Tennis · resolved market
ITF Takasaki: Sara Saito vs Hayu Kinoshita
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa020fb420c15baaa25abd5811921f6ba9f95d0ef21c6be4fc917db3163af28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hayu Kinoshitaof Sara Saito, Hayu Kinoshita
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce36…2b99backed Sara Saito | 34c | 2,770$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.95 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…a1a6backed Hayu Kinoshita | 66c | 1,671$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.99 | 272 | 48.2%131 W · 141 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Sara Saito | 32c | 1,337$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.37 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…be5dbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 68c | 700$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Sara Saito | 26c | 574.26$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.31 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 308 | 57.1%176 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Sara Saito | 8c | 247.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Sara Saito | 8c | 173.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hayu Kinoshita | 67c | 149.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Sara Saito | 31c | 133$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sara Saito | 28c | 117.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Hayu Kinoshita | 68c | 116.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Sara Saito | 35c | 100.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 71c | 64.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Sara Saito | 34c | 51.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Sara Saito | 23c | 51.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Sara Saito | 32c | 49.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Hayu Kinoshita | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sara Saito | 36c | 31.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Hayu Kinoshita | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9124…7a4dbacked Hayu Kinoshita | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Hayu Kinoshita | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Hayu Kinoshita | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Hayu Kinoshita | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 197 | 61.4%121 W · 76 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.