Music · resolved market
Will Diddy be sentenced to life in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa0d39fbc4b487011e86ea7084642675b1a331d57b92b530e8fd79b6da27589
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb9…1a1ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,150$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafa…5973backed Yes | 5c | 1,865$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,320$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…4326backed Yes | 11c | 1,233$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3076…23b4backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 539.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 476.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 8c | 471.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…bb91backed Yes | 16c | 424.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 14c | 347.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 12c | 327.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…44d8backed Yes | 9c | 271.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 10c | 267$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…93dfbacked Yes | 8c | 260.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb484…341dbacked Yes | 12c | 251.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2047…f9fbbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 8c | 172.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc9…0101backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…bed2backed Yes | 10c | 124.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8d…ff96backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7316…fd92backed Yes | 19c | 89.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…3652backed Yes | 15c | 71.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…a147backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.