Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa4d99946b9db16cdaf556b711a58d2b27ed0a386fc6d63ef0ec21383432097
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 462.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 363.22$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 272.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 193.35$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 8c | 191.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…e1b8backed Yes | 10c | 182.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 172.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 30c | 170.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 160.9$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 113$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 107.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 106.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 36c | 71.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dcd2backed Yes | 35c | 68.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 78c | 64.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 63.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 58.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 30c | 55.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 29c | 51.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 62c | 48.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 39.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 43c | 39.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 37.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 37.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 33c | 35.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 68c | 35.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 35.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 37c | 35.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 34.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 31.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 62c | 31.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 66c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 80c | 23.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 22.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 62c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 69c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.