TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,363 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes70c1,787$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.4831043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes55c973.09$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.1765043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes33c833.35$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.511,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes58c661.79$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.143238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes57c579.65$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.731,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes49c572.19$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.974,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No35c534.98$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.081,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c74…205cbacked No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No23c345.88$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No47c314.27$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.374,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes68c287.96$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9631943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes65c287.89$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0665749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No33c263.64$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.183,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes40c231.68$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.631,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No42c211.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.513,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No10c205.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.533,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes79c204.84$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No32c197.73$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.14,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No39c196.8$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.471,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c191.47$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No12c164.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No17c160$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.991,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked No53c151.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9918862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed No16c149.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.625944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…54c9backed No52c143.38$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.68356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c135.8$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes66c132.08$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.087949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No30c125.84$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3284930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c106.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes38c100.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2324046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c94.71$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.092,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes31c93.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No38c90$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.290734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c89.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.082,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No65c86.83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0413755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked No23c81.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.891,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No58c80.72$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.421,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No64c77.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed No67c74.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9714659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed No22c74.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.627817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No49c71.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No42c67.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2831050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c65.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.89,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e92…cb85backed No39c64.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No68c61.53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.946743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.094,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7913…8ef6backed No20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122650%13 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes71c58.84$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.061729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes40c57.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1614745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No34c53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.011,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53a9…1e17backed Yes39c50.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No21c50.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6329717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2834934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5717555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes63c49.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.338134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f8…fcf6backed No67c48.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0111363.7%72 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c48.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.561,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No45c47.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes55c46.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1973927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No34c46.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.891,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No31c46.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.152,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes71c43.88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.545,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes69c43.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.725058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2232…dcd2backed Yes64c35.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.822040%8 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No35c35.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4182562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes34c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.120230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No58c34.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7565965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No62c32.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4450373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7917744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No62c32.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c30.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.412,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.867336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8523241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9135362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.494,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes36c29.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3aa6…49a1backed No39c29.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.674067.5%27 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes56c28.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes66c27.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.223435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No67c24.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7472837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No51c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.241,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No76c23.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0271464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4919…89a1backed No66c22.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c21.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.852,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No64c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.342,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No73c20.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe58c…27fabacked No69c20.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x530a…bc6dbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes64c19.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9917460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No59c18.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.782,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c16.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.014,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No70c15.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a9a…10ffbacked No69c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.394070%28 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.