Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x523ca5341a77333c288b0583e95f61683d36c402a14359698542f109839a560a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,787$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.48 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 55c | 973.09$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.17 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 833.35$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.51 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 58c | 661.79$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.1 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 57c | 579.65$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.73 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 572.19$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 35c | 534.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c74…205cbacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 23c | 345.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 314.27$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 68c | 287.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 287.89$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 33c | 263.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 231.68$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 211.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 10c | 205.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 79c | 204.84$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 197.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 39c | 196.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 191.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 12c | 164.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 160$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 53c | 151.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 52c | 143.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 135.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 66c | 132.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 30c | 125.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 106.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 100.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 94.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 31c | 93.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 86.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 23c | 81.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 80.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 64c | 77.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 67c | 74.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 22c | 74.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 49c | 71.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 42c | 67.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 65.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed No | 39c | 64.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 68c | 61.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 71c | 58.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 57.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a9…1e17backed Yes | 39c | 50.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 50.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 63c | 49.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 67c | 48.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 48.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 47.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 55c | 46.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 34c | 46.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 46.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 43.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 69c | 43.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dcd2backed Yes | 64c | 35.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 35c | 35.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 58c | 34.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 62c | 32.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 30.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 36c | 29.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 39c | 29.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 28.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 66c | 27.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 23.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed No | 66c | 22.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 21.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…27fabacked No | 69c | 20.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530a…bc6dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 64c | 19.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 18.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 70c | 15.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.