World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa7c1a68c7619d1eae6d82bf3305ca78b2cc2198365c3a12c4edae5bd2ed764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 309.38$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.81 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 34c | 306.53$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 281.67$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.92 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 35c | 271$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.15 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 39c | 213$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 147.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes | 35c | 128.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 80c | 122.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 93.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 90.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 85.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 73.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…ef39backed Yes | 35c | 70.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 68.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 68.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 66.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 69c | 63.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 61.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 58.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 39c | 52.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 62c | 46.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 71c | 42.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…8662backed Yes | 27c | 39.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 36.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 36.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 34.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 69c | 31.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 30.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 22.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 68c | 18.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 18.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 18.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 18.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 62c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.