La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafaaa0c63ebe9527e1d37e6d5e3d198809ebcbe81e5270a8752bb7f9317eae6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Yes | 44c | 363.64$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 64c | 270.64$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…994abacked Yes | 80c | 250.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 49c | 207.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 16c | 188.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.13 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 182.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed No | 66c | 142.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 48c | 141$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 585 | 48%281 W · 304 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 48c | 125.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 63c | 124.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 64c | 119.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed No | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 45c | 117.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 635 | 53.1%337 W · 298 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…931dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 50c | 100.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…4c8abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 55c | 95.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c7…c6bdbacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c7…f584backed Yes | 68c | 74.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked No | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 59c | 55.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 37.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 608 | 32.4%197 W · 411 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 266 | 41.4%110 W · 156 L | +15.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 47c | 29.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Yes | 70c | 18.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will Real Sporting de Gijón vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.