Champions League · resolved market
Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafad6e1e34a5c6109e0b9e5a3f9ae924c089a655733d2dee70536636b6fc4111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 17c | 10,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 16c | 6,471$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.05 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 16c | 2,899$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.88 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.85 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 18c | 877.72$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 14c | 850.87$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 18c | 694$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb49…43febacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd5…a3ccbacked Yes | 26c | 279$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 78c | 262.47$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…8257backed Yes | 19c | 260$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 79c | 245.16$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 20c | 230$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 20c | 230$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Yes | 22c | 229.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 12c | 192.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…e313backed Yes | 25c | 181.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 20c | 172.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 20c | 147.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…5837backed Yes | 23c | 143.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…6fe4backed No | 77c | 129$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…487cbacked Yes | 24c | 114.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 26c | 109.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed Yes | 19c | 106.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8a12backed Yes | 24c | 105.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4373…95ebbacked Yes | 17c | 87.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…e20fbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 23c | 58.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…3d37backed No | 80c | 39.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…f9b4backed No | 77c | 32.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 75c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense?No won
- Will Fluminense vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.