Champions League · resolved market
Will Fluminense vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d35be0ac82ce139b63e47acfc629661a5cb78cc73f939932277e928e6c2637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 32c | 4,780$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.69 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 59c | 2,391$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.86 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 24c | 1,990$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.4 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 41c | 1,200$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.84 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 26c | 808.25$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.05 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 50c | 558.13$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.92 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 3c | 517.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 75c | 493.48$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 23c | 437.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.22 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bb…812cbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 58c | 376.69$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…59f3backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 76c | 248.33$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47c…a661backed Yes | 60c | 160.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…e37cbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 72c | 129.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…1966backed Yes | 24c | 86.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Yes | 77c | 78.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 32c | 58.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 47c | 54.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…f0abbacked No | 79c | 47.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 75c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Yes | 60c | 33.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…330abacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4373…95ebbacked Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense?No won
- Will Fluminense beat Borussia Dortmund?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.