Tennis · resolved market
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs Lilian Marmousez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb1e0e601821a045b37176c08e875c69020166abf025d86705f2fc4c73bb7c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gustavo Heideof Gustavo Heide, Lilian Marmousez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Gustavo Heide | 77c | 1,277$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.51 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…61a0backed Gustavo Heide | 73c | 1,263$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.97 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | +27.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Lilian Marmousez | 10c | 1,162$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lilian Marmousez | 3c | 1,031$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Lilian Marmousez | 23c | 838.86$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 243 | 29.6%72 W · 171 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…ec60backed Gustavo Heide | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.71 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Lilian Marmousez | 23c | 707.84$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 1,883 | 44.8%843 W · 1,040 L | +36.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Lilian Marmousez | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.88 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Lilian Marmousez | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Lilian Marmousez | 49c | 487.22$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Gustavo Heide | 77c | 429.16$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Gustavo Heide | 64c | 427.97$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.26 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Gustavo Heide | 78c | 384.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Gustavo Heide | 77c | 330.52$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Gustavo Heide | 50c | 330.07$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.11 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 278.05$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 1,683 | 50.6%851 W · 832 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Gustavo Heide | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Lilian Marmousez | 50c | 193.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…d7f6backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 188.16$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Lilian Marmousez | 33c | 187.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Gustavo Heide | 77c | 169.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 855 | 68.3%584 W · 271 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Lilian Marmousez | 24c | 155.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 1,425 | 55.1%785 W · 640 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Lilian Marmousez | 26c | 151.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Gustavo Heide | 80c | 139.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 403 | 60.8%245 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…3c52backed Lilian Marmousez | 20c | 128.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 202 | 34.2%69 W · 133 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Lilian Marmousez | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Lilian Marmousez | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 634 | 40.9%259 W · 375 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Lilian Marmousez | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…e669backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 229 | 63.3%145 W · 84 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Lilian Marmousez | 38c | 91.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 2,099 | 44.5%935 W · 1,164 L | -51.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lilian Marmousez | 26c | 88.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Lilian Marmousez | 22c | 88.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 659 | 49.3%325 W · 334 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Lilian Marmousez | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Gustavo Heide | 72c | 70.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 257 | 63.4%163 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Gustavo Heide | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Lilian Marmousez | 22c | 67.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Gustavo Heide | 73c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…f675backed Lilian Marmousez | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed Lilian Marmousez | 45c | 44.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Gustavo Heide | 65c | 42.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Lilian Marmousez | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Gustavo Heide | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Lilian Marmousez | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Gustavo Heide | 77c | 38.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…946dbacked Gustavo Heide | 79c | 26.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Gustavo Heide | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 904 | 59.5%538 W · 366 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.