F1 · resolved market
Will Ben Armstrong vs. More Light have no official winner?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb3877ccb7be165108a6927e030013d89c68e1ede0296b9bbc2d8780329a2b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x573d…f64abacked Yes | 4c | 2,493$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…5759backed Yes | 6c | 865$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…c4f5backed Yes | 6c | 751.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 20c | 705$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd089…f901backed Yes | 3c | 650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53d8…438cbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…c172backed Yes | 4c | 290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +914.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7619…2c10backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb031…5e0ebacked Yes | 7c | 179.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 20c | 174$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ben Armstrong vs. More Light have no official winner?this page
- Will Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) beat More Light?Yes won
- Will More Light beat Ben Armstrong?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.