F1 · resolved market
Will More Light beat Ben Armstrong?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c5f1792171281a17012d2119443e9532fc6cdf6bca04f7e3d28a5f444a4f664
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,049$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…ece2backed Yes | 65c | 1,706$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…64a4backed Yes | 59c | 1,126$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…e792backed No | 42c | 1,072$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…5950backed Yes | 68c | 894.2$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7708…631fbacked No | 40c | 877.63$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…65fbbacked Yes | 62c | 771.45$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Yes | 64c | 722.42$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e14…f399backed Yes | 54c | 621.26$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…a14ebacked No | 42c | 567.2$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed Yes | 47c | 520.5$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 46c | 450$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x634b…145fbacked Yes | 63c | 295.67$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 54c | 280$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…5759backed No | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…e091backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +150%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e5…90a3backed Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…21e6backed No | 40c | 249.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…8650backed Yes | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 51c | 222$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…68e1backed No | 36c | 219.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…d151backed Yes | 59c | 189.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d0…83e4backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa000…36dabacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…b371backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…77e3backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…067dbacked Yes | 65c | 79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…0157backed Yes | 66c | 72.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd089…f901backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 69c | 55.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…e2f3backed Yes | 70c | 53.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 33c | 49.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb031…5e0ebacked Yes | 64c | 48.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…75cabacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…c4f5backed Yes | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will More Light beat Ben Armstrong?this page
- Will Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) beat More Light?Yes won
- Will Ben Armstrong vs. More Light have no official winner?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.