F1 · resolved market
Will Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) beat More Light?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa554b05cb355a7936c812ef93442ab5758bbd93d36766cf41ca6518cd0e20223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f33…9e1ebacked Yes | 48c | 2,602$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…ece2backed No | 67c | 1,345$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…f64abacked Yes | 33c | 1,211$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…b735backed No | 69c | 1,190$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…65fbbacked No | 62c | 1,161$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 28c | 1,150$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…9c70backed Yes | 32c | 950.94$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 30c | 941$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…1046backed Yes | 40c | 916.83$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449b…3b70backed Yes | 31c | 830.98$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed No | 68c | 807$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed No | 73c | 650$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb2…9dbdbacked Yes | 53c | 550.71$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e5…90a3backed No | 60c | 533.33$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f5…65aabacked Yes | 39c | 518.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e1…d38bbacked Yes | 39c | 508.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2226…dc86backed Yes | 28c | 395.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e03…14ffbacked Yes | 33c | 393.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…ec72backed Yes | 33c | 384.8$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…b118backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…e792backed No | 64c | 339.54$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 5c | 338.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…c89abacked Yes | 35c | 310.06$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d0…83e4backed No | 69c | 291.11$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…c172backed Yes | 5c | 275$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +914.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…07e5backed Yes | 32c | 262$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +210.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc052…9077backed Yes | 41c | 260.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…e091backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +150%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…1310backed Yes | 33c | 249.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 24c | 222$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…3cc1backed Yes | 39c | 205.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 32c | 202$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…395bbacked Yes | 59c | 170.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…75cabacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…9394backed No | 67c | 147.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…f002backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…c6d2backed Yes | 36c | 139.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…ed1bbacked No | 66c | 136.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd089…f901backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…a121backed Yes | 37c | 132.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f42…7837backed No | 75c | 125$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309a…efcebacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…6c1dbacked Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed No | 51c | 88.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…a12bbacked Yes | 33c | 63.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5a…e2ddbacked Yes | 41c | 61.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 27c | 49.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…b211backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1b…28d9backed Yes | 54c | 46.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…c44fbacked Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba2…6151backed Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) beat More Light?this page
- Will Ben Armstrong vs. More Light have no official winner?No won
- Will More Light beat Ben Armstrong?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.