Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafc25fedd7b11ee0e5d5543d86a21945d1faf3353f90f946f4666ea2c9b108bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,837 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Yes | 80c | 4,982$3,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.41 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…8c6dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,582$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.98 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Yes | 52c | 2,216$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.66 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Yes | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked No | 50c | 1,755$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 74c | 1,534$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 29c | 1,406$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.63 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 53c | 1,007$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.49 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 953.41$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.46 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed No | 35c | 712.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 38c | 674.76$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.16 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 48c | 625.72$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.89 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 55c | 542.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.27 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 20c | 536.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 46c | 451.49$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 59c | 329.1$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 54c | 314.88$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.88 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…d3febacked Yes | 51c | 298.08$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 38c | 210$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 73c | 200.15$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 37c | 170$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 63c | 134.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 47c | 133.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 56c | 133.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 48c | 100.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 34c | 93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…efe4backed No | 54c | 89.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 55c | 85.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 21c | 72.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 52c | 64.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed No | 48c | 63.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 48c | 61.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 47c | 60.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 21c | 51.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 50.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 53c | 49.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 56c | 49.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed Yes | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 54c | 44.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 50c | 41.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 47c | 35.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 52c | 32.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed No | 48c | 31.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…c56dbacked No | 48c | 27.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 57c | 22.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 78c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.