UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafc920e436295de244848036a15fcfc065fcf6a96705587eab9762bd86287316
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 7,013$3,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,156.25 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…08bbbacked Over | 46c | 5,704$2,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,638.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 45c | 2,655$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.79 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e07…292bbacked Over | 51c | 2,478$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 42c | 1,527$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.86 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Under | 58c | 1,180$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.72 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 48c | 491.57$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 58c | 356.78$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 49c | 240$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…23b4backed Over | 49c | 232.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Under | 54c | 194.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 46c | 188.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffa…f32ebacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 119$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 53c | 113.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 48c | 112.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 19c | 105.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…49e6backed Over | 45c | 76.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 51c | 67.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 72c | 33.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Felipe Franco won
- Will Levi Rodrigues Jr. win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.