College Football · resolved market
Old Dominion vs. Indiana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd0036adbbbeb7035b13dce6ce9a2d2e94ca059a9e17db60488da94677c8693
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Old Dominion, Indiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Old Dominion | 8c | 5,562$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.98 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Old Dominion | 7c | 5,050$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.31 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Old Dominion | 1c | 4,975$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Old Dominion | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Old Dominion | 21c | 900$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f6…4581backed Old Dominion | 9c | 890.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Old Dominion | 6c | 599.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Indiana | 70c | 553.41$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.2 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Old Dominion | 5c | 532.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Old Dominion | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Old Dominion | 3c | 385$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked Old Dominion | 5c | 345$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Old Dominion | 13c | 283.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Old Dominion | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…1d65backed Old Dominion | 47c | 213.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Old Dominion | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 94 | 20.2%19 W · 75 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Old Dominion | 6c | 191.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Old Dominion | 10c | 168.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…a240backed Old Dominion | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.