WNBA · resolved market
Aces vs. Sparks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd1d9e851210065b926008d439a03692678e3651a0ee1781c42d0bc4ad5cf66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Acesof Aces, Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Sparks | 18c | 5,208$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.94 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sparks | 6c | 4,188$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.37 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Sparks | 20c | 3,966$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.06 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Aces | 80c | 1,818$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.69 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Sparks | 18c | 1,500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.99 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Sparks | 19c | 1,147$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Sparks | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Sparks | 20c | 973.45$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Aces | 78c | 800$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Sparks | 17c | 761.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Sparks | 17c | 600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sparks | 22c | 559$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sparks | 18c | 551.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sparks | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sparks | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Sparks | 19c | 402$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Sparks | 18c | 303$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Sparks | 19c | 192.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Sparks | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 14.1%13 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sparks | 19c | 112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Sparks | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Sparks | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…1f8cbacked Sparks | 25c | 80.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Aces | 75c | 80.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Sparks | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Sparks | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.