Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafdfb76623d78c0492095313931d39e233809ed06dc83bfce33393b7e4d55a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Minaur, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Minaur | 34c | 3,160$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.42 | 2,204 | 36.9%813 W · 1,391 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Nakashima | 66c | 3,119$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.07 | 607 | 53.7%326 W · 281 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Nakashima | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.97 | 546 | 41.6%227 W · 319 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Minaur | 53c | 528.91$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.32 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Minaur | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86c…b76fbacked Nakashima | 67c | 210$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…6d33backed Nakashima | 67c | 145.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nakashima | 64c | 139.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Minaur | 53c | 137$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Minaur | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Minaur | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Minaur | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 268 | 41.8%112 W · 156 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Minaur | 53c | 96.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…ad6abacked Nakashima | 63c | 79.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…4b1dbacked Minaur | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Minaur | 37c | 53.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…9980backed Nakashima | 63c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 228 | 43.9%100 W · 128 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Minaur | 51c | 43.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…27d4backed Nakashima | 66c | 42.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Minaur | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Nakashima | 48c | 40.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Minaur | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Minaur | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,009 | 38.3%386 W · 623 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Minaur | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 577 | 36.7%212 W · 365 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon NakashimaBrandon Nakashima won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs NakashimaNakashima won
- Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs NakashimaNakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.