Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30d732915daf3cfe7b578c85503812e4d23931223d93449edfa1b718eb09f9c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Minaur, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f93…eb20backed Nakashima | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.99 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minaur | 48c | 7,540$3,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,615.36 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…9565backed Minaur | 35c | 1,421$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…878dbacked Nakashima | 53c | 1,367$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.2 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Nakashima | 52c | 506.88$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.3 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Minaur | 44c | 214.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Minaur | 48c | 203.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Minaur | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Nakashima | 45c | 117.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Minaur | 36c | 108.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Minaur | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nakashima | 63c | 98.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Minaur | 57c | 89.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 302 | 51.3%155 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Minaur | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Minaur | 55c | 66.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Minaur | 51c | 37.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Nakashimathis page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon NakashimaBrandon Nakashima won
- Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs NakashimaNakashima won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.