Tennis · resolved market
Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc995963f46e27807ada0d67bce048f28a1c3acd0a18bb7f0c4ded785bb5d3b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Under | 56c | 252.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.14 | 243 | 56%136 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over | 44c | 245.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 78c | 195.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 44c | 182.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 44c | 168$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 317 | 42.3%134 W · 183 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Under | 56c | 113$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 102.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Over | 15c | 92.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Under | 51c | 72.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Over | 31c | 64.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 51.7%135 W · 126 L | +18.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 50c | 63.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 53.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 4,126 | 44.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L | +13.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 50c | 44.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 271 | 39.1%106 W · 165 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 203 | 36.5%74 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Over | 53c | 37.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Over | 43c | 35.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,001 | 38.4%384 W · 617 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 68c | 31.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 50c | 27.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 3,412 | 39.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L | -11.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…cdeebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon NakashimaBrandon Nakashima won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs NakashimaNakashima won
- Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs NakashimaNakashima won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.