Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafe2b0860c5f1faa115660b5f767c49aadab0676d46e079ebce772b0271aafe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 898.38$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.79 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 25c | 436.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 309.72$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 294.85$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.54 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 279.11$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 224$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 10c | 202$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.1 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 172.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 160.4$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 150.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 38c | 137.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 58c | 120.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 79c | 113.59$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed No | 74c | 93.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 92.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 76.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 64c | 66.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 68c | 61.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 61.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 74c | 57.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 54.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 52.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 52.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 51.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 69c | 48.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 77c | 47.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 46.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 44.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 42.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 35c | 41.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 35c | 38.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…6301backed No | 52c | 35.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…18cebacked No | 78c | 34.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…b9b2backed No | 66c | 31.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 30.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 64c | 27.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…0f89backed No | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 75c | 20.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 64c | 17.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.