Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78236eeec146c6ba2a07d9fd6b4e26328ebcca3a9cdf197093dad51e355673bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 45c | 877.9$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.46 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 787.37$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.12 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 546.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 528.67$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 4c | 444$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 416.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 7c | 394.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 272.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 38c | 265.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 253.65$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 66c | 247.13$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 237.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 56c | 204.2$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 10c | 184.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 182.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 170.59$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 169.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 168$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 36c | 153.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 36c | 150.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 137.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 130.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 123$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 102.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 92.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 89.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 68c | 72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 71.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 64.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 63.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 55.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 51.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 51.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 50.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 48.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 60c | 41.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 80c | 28.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…f447backed No | 54c | 27.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 38c | 26.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 25.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 23.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 67c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.