Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x871348bfa6a791045a811fb1515730592dff966837a8dc9b88020b8aabf5654b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 23c | 695.72$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.26 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 29c | 550.34$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 32c | 402.93$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 59c | 391.31$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.21 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 340.19$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 72c | 325.32$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 311.13$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 269.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 245.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 50c | 236$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 223$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 187.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 55c | 175.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 160.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 146.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 123.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 83.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 26c | 80.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 77.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 72.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 70.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 59.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 54.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1b…6399backed Yes | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 50.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 54c | 47.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…6301backed Yes | 57c | 42.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 59c | 42.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 41.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 37.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 58c | 36.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed No | 51c | 36.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 53c | 35.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 62c | 34.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 52c | 34.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 61c | 34.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 33.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 32.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 32.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 48c | 31.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 51c | 30.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 51c | 29.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed Yes | 67c | 29.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 28.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 63c | 26.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 47c | 26.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 55c | 23.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 52c | 22.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 22.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 53c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 57c | 19.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 74c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.