Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafe69b56544dc2ea2e501f5af3d6b699f36031b1bcfaec075264bb5cf212cd02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 1c | 4,723$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…9167backed Yes | 25c | 3,904$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,928 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…bae3backed Yes | 25c | 3,900$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0076…f2a7backed No | 75c | 1,325$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d37…34ddbacked No | 75c | 1,323$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb836…fdc6backed No | 75c | 1,296$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd77…8be2backed No | 75c | 1,295$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…630cbacked No | 75c | 1,285$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9749…602fbacked No | 75c | 1,280$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 15c | 405.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 18c | 400.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 363.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.88 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 72c | 340$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 273.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 200.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 44c | 188.26$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 174$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 17c | 171.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 77c | 152.24$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 20c | 148.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.62 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 54c | 124.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 121.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 114.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 114.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 16c | 106.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 104.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 12c | 91.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 87.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 68c | 80.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 77c | 78.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 79c | 75.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed Yes | 48c | 71.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 77c | 64.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 41c | 63.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 25c | 56.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…f69abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed Yes | 37c | 48.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 26c | 42.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 76c | 38.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 47c | 36.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 51c | 31.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 28.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 39c | 26.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 22.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 79c | 21.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 74c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 68c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…902dbacked No | 76c | 17.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 77c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.