TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes13c2,737$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.185135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No60c516.83$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3532157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No53c373.95$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1854143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No74c268.63$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No74c265.84$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes48c250.62$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2638840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c229.78$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b22…8945backed No58c187.05$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5925341.5%105 W · 148 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c186.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.087,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed Yes46c185.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No55c177.97$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9791967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes35c177.78$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.961,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes43c174$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.671,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed No56c149.91$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8315749.7%78 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes30c140.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8852322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22fe…20c6backed No55c138$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.795350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes11c129.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5972726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf4cc…a95dbacked No76c129.54$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.547081.4%57 W · 13 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No60c129.11$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.124966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f6…628cbacked No57c126.67$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.856755.2%37 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No64c115.85$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9527648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes41c111.85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.728,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No69c109.92$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.661,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed Yes44c107.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4610051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f48…7825backed No63c103.09$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.610614.2%15 W · 91 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes34c102.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.991,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes49c102.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bf…a27ebacked Yes46c90.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes43c88.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes16c85.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8966543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No63c78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8633567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes37c74.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1325029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No58c71.15$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6335843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes29c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1573…36b3backed Yes52c64.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.372755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf24e…9903backed No47c64.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes45c60.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.021,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes33c59.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9634219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c8…b823backed Yes50c56.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.114271.4%30 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes40c55.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2211044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No47c54.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6413453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes44c51.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5412235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No60c51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5116355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes52c48.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6df…93fabacked Yes45c45.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86aa…eb33backed No53c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.154551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.641,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No54c44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0812540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0f…b8aabacked No60c42.89$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes53c42.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.351833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca1a…89e5backed No50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes42c40.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.281029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2974…e9d8backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1623323.6%55 W · 178 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No51c39.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4659742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes39c36.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4325725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes58c36.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9826253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes46c35.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.321440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d2b…815abacked No55c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5310264.7%66 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…644fbacked No56c31.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.772528%7 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-53.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes51c29.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.392028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes49c29.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8418740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4581…91f9backed No60c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.24146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes38c27.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6668521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeedf…71e6backed Yes40c27.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.922941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes44c26.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.886349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2517…87d9backed Yes42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.567540%30 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9160…1705backed No55c24.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.23844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No52c24.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.638957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No66c23.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No54c21.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8232652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc627…5d3dbacked No61c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.192548%12 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick64cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No57c20.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.011,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…c774backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No58c18.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No60c17.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9176371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No64c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.121,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c09…fa55backed No61c16.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.572744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7d0…db89backed No61c16.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.571855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b3d…2c18backed No74c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.647065.7%46 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.