Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaff70178caa79e29831dc419f981b2a26256c88e28c570af3d86f410cfc04be2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,294$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 58c | 788.9$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.46 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 38c | 659.32$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.11 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 42c | 249.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 239.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 147.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 144.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 8c | 135$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 46c | 109.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 101.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 50c | 79.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…4a59backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 53c | 25.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 3?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on August 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.