Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UCF Knights (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaff96a2c221a672b52192ba1dfccf57514df4db78c927f3aa4fdcf9b7059a756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baylor Bearsof UCF Knights, Baylor Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UCF Knights | 46c | 3,511$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.42 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UCF Knights | 46c | 3,068$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.59 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Baylor Bears | 53c | 3,012$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.36 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Baylor Bears | 55c | 2,993$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.98 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baylor Bears | 54c | 1,867$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.87 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked UCF Knights | 42c | 750.22$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.24 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Baylor Bears | 61c | 466.53$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.95 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Baylor Bears | 54c | 246.47$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…dd9fbacked UCF Knights | 26c | 191.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed UCF Knights | 48c | 123.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed UCF Knights | 48c | 113.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed UCF Knights | 46c | 108.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked UCF Knights | 40c | 99.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed UCF Knights | 48c | 99.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Baylor Bears | 55c | 90.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed UCF Knights | 22c | 67.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Baylor Bears | 55c | 60.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f8…f41cbacked UCF Knights | 45c | 59.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed UCF Knights | 46c | 57.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked UCF Knights | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked UCF Knights | 47c | 49.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 48.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed UCF Knights | 46c | 41.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…44a2backed UCF Knights | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Baylor Bears | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…71a5backed UCF Knights | 45c | 39.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked UCF Knights | 46c | 37.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Baylor Bears | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed UCF Knights | 47c | 31.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed UCF Knights | 45c | 31.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed UCF Knights | 48c | 24.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed UCF Knights | 48c | 22.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UCF Knights (-2.5)this page
- Baylor Bears vs. UCF KnightsBaylor Bears won
- Baylor Bears vs. UCF Knights: O/U 158.5Over won
- Baylor Bears vs. UCF Knights: O/U 159.5Over won
- Spread: UCF Knights (-1.5)Baylor Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.