Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Baylor Bears vs. UCF Knights: O/U 159.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea73874a546c9308c1ce73a0050f31b303c4d431a64474f5555b0a5210da8d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 50c | 7,777$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,888.5 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 50c | 4,371$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.35 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Under | 50c | 2,052$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.94 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 51c | 980.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.37 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 688.66$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.48 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 49c | 671.55$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.64 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 6c | 416.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 49c | 198.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6232…f92abacked Over | 56c | 124.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 86.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 49c | 79.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Under | 50c | 69.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 49c | 66.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 62.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…56ffbacked Under | 49c | 54.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 49c | 40.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 53c | 38.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6d…e279backed Over | 53c | 33.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 50c | 22.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baylor Bears vs. UCF Knights: O/U 159.5this page
- Baylor Bears vs. UCF KnightsBaylor Bears won
- Baylor Bears vs. UCF Knights: O/U 158.5Over won
- Spread: UCF Knights (-1.5)Baylor Bears won
- Spread: UCF Knights (-2.5)Baylor Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.