Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02c5f4a75d6ff8c7fa421e0ca1ce487d018f0e90f13a90b92f7618d2f8b7e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 50c | 1,402$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.44 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 78c | 1,110$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 572.1$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 47c | 391.84$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 249.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 235.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 173.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 155.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 59c | 151.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 150$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 117.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 53c | 110.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 38c | 101.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 56c | 100.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 89.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 87.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 77.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 45c | 67.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 57c | 65.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed No | 39c | 64.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 61.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 59c | 57.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 40c | 56.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed Yes | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 36c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 48.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 58c | 45.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 34c | 44.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 44.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…c010backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 58c | 39.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 36.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 43c | 34.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked Yes | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 52c | 28.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 59c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 67c | 20.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…94a2backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 18.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.