Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ff49c5e05c608b2c2409c8002df619acadefa2a73ec04c74a56000c9314b25d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 30c | 971.9$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.55 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 401.7$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 302.78$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 77c | 292.52$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 30c | 252.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.89 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 53c | 252.37$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.37 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 227.85$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.07 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 155.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 8c | 132.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 81.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 74.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 73.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 24c | 71.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 64.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 36c | 62.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…a4e8backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 47.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 44.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 75c | 40.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…0cfbbacked No | 74c | 38.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 67c | 37.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 73c | 36.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 36.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 35.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed Yes | 34c | 32.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 40c | 30.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 30.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 75c | 22.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 69c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 19.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 72c | 16.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.