South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb08d6d2f96371c582b0e650f6e2a9c0db73167776e24a6e0833111db27c21dcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 1,732$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.75 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 32c | 1,371$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.62 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a5…2cbdbacked Over | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Under | 80c | 811.94$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 18c | 797.38$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 15c | 699.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 464.43$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…a7ebbacked Under | 79c | 461.76$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 192.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 175.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 143.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7f…336fbacked Over | 35c | 137.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 12c | 110.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 19c | 100.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Under | 70c | 98.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 70c | 95.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…361abacked Over | 34c | 94.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 24c | 79.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Under | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 26c | 53.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…e7f0backed Under | 76c | 51.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Under | 77c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Under | 77c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 75c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- EC Bahia vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-2.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)EC Bahia won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)EC Bahia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.