NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb090d593d355b05aca0a0bf81192d8474f13886fb52b95332dd5e8edbaf60f3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 7,500$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050.28 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 54c | 6,944$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.6 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 53c | 5,660$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.8 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…52cabacked Over | 45c | 2,822$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 53c | 2,781$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.19 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 2,098$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.88 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 53c | 1,752$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.38 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0720…b1aebacked Over | 47c | 990.48$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Over | 47c | 941$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.73 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 587.47$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.73 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 45c | 511.11$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.11 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 77c | 445.56$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 430$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.9 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 376.35$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.47 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 55c | 367.36$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 45c | 332.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.1 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 293$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 45c | 286$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 231.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Over | 45c | 220.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 44c | 215$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d2…92c8backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Under | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 55c | 159$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 55c | 134$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf307…a5bdbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…adcebacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 56c | 91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 47c | 88.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Over | 46c | 86.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Over | 47c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 55c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…f83abacked Under | 40c | 62.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Under | 52c | 53.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Over | 44c | 50.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 56c | 50.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 54c | 37.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 44c | 24.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.