NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaeeb109f61e3301ca37a62847b0dc2b57040d98ab1c64040eb9d4d51198d20b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Golden Knights, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 1,943$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.79 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Golden Knights | 34c | 1,765$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 361.82$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Golden Knights | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights | 33c | 230.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 144$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c4a6backed Golden Knights | 18c | 111.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 34c | 108$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…e4e1backed Golden Knights | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 76.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Golden Knights | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Golden Knights | 33c | 48.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Golden Knights | 33c | 48.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Golden Knights | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Golden Knights | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Golden Knights | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 44.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Golden Knights | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 20.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Maple Leafs | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Maple Leafs | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.