MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0b9ba9eabee38d1633c71a2a76298a907088ac30fb6e8dc4e17123513155560
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 903.69$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.4 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 844.95$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.09 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 578.32$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 538.45$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 501.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.1 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 330.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.65 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…7ef8backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 325$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 288.72$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 285.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.45 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 263.85$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 243.88$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.65 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 155.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 121.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 120.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 105.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 102.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 82.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 75.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 62.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 58.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 54.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 52.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 40.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 37.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 32.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 32.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 26.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 24.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 21.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 21.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta BravesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.