Tennis · resolved market
ITF Lodz: Vladyslav Orlov vs Jakub Vrtilka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d468dadaa8b23b1c080604d6b4f887df643c17c17ef2a071889cc470ef86ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vladyslav Orlovof Vladyslav Orlov, Jakub Vrtilka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jakub Vrtilka | 57c | 2,703$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.65 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Vladyslav Orlov | 37c | 1,914$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.8 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…377ebacked Jakub Vrtilka | 12c | 551.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 249 | 18.5%46 W · 203 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Jakub Vrtilka | 66c | 408.78$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.8 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 46c | 260.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 64c | 239.79$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 70c | 171.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed Jakub Vrtilka | 11c | 138.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Vladyslav Orlov | 73c | 126.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Vladyslav Orlov | 66c | 117.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Vladyslav Orlov | 71c | 72.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Jakub Vrtilka | 24c | 70.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Jakub Vrtilka | 42c | 65.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 70c | 58.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 78c | 54.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Jakub Vrtilka | 28c | 54.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Vladyslav Orlov | 71c | 53.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Vladyslav Orlov | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Vladyslav Orlov | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Vladyslav Orlov | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 68c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 139 | 65.5%91 W · 48 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Vladyslav Orlov | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.