Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0e5dd83def4d72ccb70431bdabea9b110b6df37f7ac530f406839e370e93027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 15,075$8,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,681.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 33c | 7,949$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,623.17 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 5,184$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,356.22 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 56c | 3,500$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.83 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 35c | 2,207$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.45 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,148$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 1,003$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.51 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 24c | 916.49$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 882.8$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.71 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 51c | 789.57$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.68 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 67c | 609.41$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 36c | 397.45$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 371.86$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.54 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 19c | 367.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.44 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 37c | 312.49$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 51c | 230$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 75c | 229.18$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.47 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 44c | 226.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 62c | 222.23$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 33c | 209.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 200.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 76c | 180.08$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 174.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 50c | 116.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 71c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 61c | 58.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 59c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 60c | 55.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…fa88backed Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 24c | 44.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 68c | 40.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 51c | 37.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 45c | 28.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.