Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0f4f8761e673e2622c9df9b571f6531d51c855ed14224eb072b28cd264c001a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 25c | 289.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 176$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 162.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 149.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 93.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 76c | 70.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 64.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 57.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbb…04febacked No | 75c | 57.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 56.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 53.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 26c | 44.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 41.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 79c | 39.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 34.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 31.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 75c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 78c | 20.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 75c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…d397backed No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.