Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90619d0fa788c878712f39fc23b1734e7565a52593bf35283d433c11a096ca97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 1,030$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.75 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 51c | 275.28$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 62c | 81.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 79.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 72.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 51c | 68.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 67.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 49c | 66.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 49.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 55c | 47.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 37c | 42.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 41.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 41.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 36.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 45c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 31.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 29.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 41c | 27.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 52c | 24.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 23.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 23.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 22.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 60c | 21.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 65c | 20.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 15.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.