Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0f8a70059b654e25b786af2e7e2a739040dc8aacb24b3917da9424c3d6f74fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Collignon, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x698b…4426backed Arnaldi | 50c | 1,278$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.38 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Collignon | 52c | 708.77$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.54 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Collignon | 49c | 464.06$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.39 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Collignon | 50c | 444.4$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Arnaldi | 51c | 438$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.62 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Collignon | 50c | 400.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arnaldi | 50c | 384.4$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.2 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Collignon | 20c | 297.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Collignon | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 233 | 53.2%124 W · 109 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Collignon | 50c | 118.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Arnaldi | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…d3c9backed Collignon | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -8.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…1a7ebacked Collignon | 12c | 92.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Arnaldi | 44c | 86.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Arnaldi | 49c | 75.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Arnaldi | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Arnaldi | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Collignon | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Collignon | 50c | 46.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Collignon | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Arnaldi | 49c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb08d…0070backed Arnaldi | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Collignon | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Arnaldi | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)this page
- Arnaldi vs. Collignon: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Arnaldi vs. Collignon: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Matteo Arnaldi vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael CollignonMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set 1 Winner: Arnaldi vs CollignonArnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Collignon (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)Arnaldi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.