Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0fad279e8ac6184f4ccb96b9e142c29cc5fe92bc94b543b4f2450de5648601b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oxford United FCof Derby County FC, Oxford United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Derby County FC | 25c | 6,076$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Oxford United FC | 75c | 3,051$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.7 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Oxford United FC | 75c | 1,211$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.34 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Oxford United FC | 76c | 1,192$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.63 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oxford United FC | 77c | 1,072$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.9 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Derby County FC | 25c | 1,031$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.75 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Oxford United FC | 77c | 703$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Derby County FC | 23c | 593.82$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Derby County FC | 21c | 499.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Derby County FC | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb7…50b4backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 225.69$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…116abacked Oxford United FC | 50c | 216.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…a834backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 214.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…1003backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 211.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6322…85a3backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 211.28$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Derby County FC | 23c | 209.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…b786backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 209.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2181…32b2backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 209.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…249bbacked Oxford United FC | 50c | 208.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…f965backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 208.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…6ddbbacked Oxford United FC | 50c | 208.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…87a5backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 208.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…afd2backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 203.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…6ce9backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 202.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…6690backed Oxford United FC | 50c | 201.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…06cfbacked Oxford United FC | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff0…053cbacked Oxford United FC | 50c | 191.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Oxford United FC | 76c | 167.29$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Oxford United FC | 78c | 100.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Derby County FC | 23c | 89.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Derby County FC | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Oxford United FC | 76c | 84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 205 | 45.4%93 W · 112 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Derby County FC | 24c | 83.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Oxford United FC | 75c | 54.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Oxford United FC | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Derby County FC | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Oxford United FC | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Derby County FC | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Oxford United FC | 77c | 35.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Oxford United FC | 77c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Oxford United FC | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Derby County FC | 40c | 27.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Oxford United FC | 73c | 22.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Oxford United FC | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)this page
- Derby County FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Oxford United FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.