CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fluxo W7M - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0fd4d979392ba45915749e498df9b02ae2deb08dcac091dc7c948ddc8936526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluxo W7Mof Keyd, Fluxo W7M
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Keyd | 41c | 3,219$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.48 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Fluxo W7M | 52c | 3,096$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.69 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Keyd | 51c | 2,208$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.73 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Fluxo W7M | 67c | 2,144$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.7 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Fluxo W7M | 49c | 1,366$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.88 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Keyd | 58c | 796.58$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.97 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Fluxo W7M | 47c | 793.18$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.38 | 529 | 51.4%272 W · 257 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Fluxo W7M | 46c | 735.22$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.46 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Keyd | 42c | 590.58$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.9 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Keyd | 4c | 356.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 110 | 2.7%3 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Fluxo W7M | 65c | 300.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fluxo W7M | 35c | 278.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Fluxo W7M | 52c | 272.67$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Keyd | 64c | 240.86$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb73…c4d9backed Keyd | 33c | 195$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Keyd | 36c | 178$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Keyd | 44c | 177.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 151 | 57%86 W · 65 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Keyd | 43c | 126.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Fluxo W7M | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Keyd | 14c | 97.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Fluxo W7M | 44c | 86.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fluxo W7M | 40c | 72.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Keyd | 65c | 70.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 351 | 48.1%169 W · 182 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…f09ebacked Fluxo W7M | 80c | 62.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Keyd | 34c | 47.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Fluxo W7M | 40c | 46.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 483 | 19%92 W · 391 L | -65.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Keyd | 60c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Keyd | 66c | 40.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Keyd | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Keyd | 43c | 25.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fluxo W7M - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #4 PlayoffsKeyd won
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fluxo W7M - Map 2 WinnerKeyd won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: FXW7 (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5)Keyd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.