Earnings · resolved market
Will U-Haul Holding (UHAL.B) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb12e8a1937b936aa39125837206b4255fba25e4043f68ee19351eba0479a602b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 44c | 385.55$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.68 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…11a4backed No | 43c | 368.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.89 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 68c | 251.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 223.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 223.08$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 61c | 220$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 60c | 170.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4220…b0fdbacked No | 60c | 167.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 27c | 164.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 49c | 101.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 32c | 66.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 58c | 64.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…b0febacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 67c | 44.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 41c | 39.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.