Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
California Golden Bears vs. Virginia Cavaliers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb130c795d55db9c7ddfc9c8b2f0a1c2d705d4aad898e595dfab47fe8c54ae417
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof California Golden Bears, Virginia Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked California Golden Bears | 13c | 1,507$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed California Golden Bears | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked California Golden Bears | 12c | 995.17$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California Golden Bears | 4c | 893.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…dc71backed California Golden Bears | 7c | 891.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed California Golden Bears | 3c | 700.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed California Golden Bears | 13c | 613$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California Golden Bears | 11c | 536.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked California Golden Bears | 10c | 500.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 181 | 29.3%53 W · 128 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed California Golden Bears | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 115 | 7%8 W · 107 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed California Golden Bears | 14c | 427.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked California Golden Bears | 3c | 360.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed California Golden Bears | 8c | 309.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked California Golden Bears | 12c | 268$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…6ad1backed California Golden Bears | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked California Golden Bears | 7c | 190.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed California Golden Bears | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed California Golden Bears | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed California Golden Bears | 14c | 69.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Virginia Cavaliers | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- California Golden Bears vs. Virginia Cavaliersthis page
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-13.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.