Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Elmer Moeller vs Elias Ymer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1375f7af9547d745690abc04c1a2c3cf0f6cc24c3ca2c7933b6e2fc5d7ceee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ymerof Moeller, Ymer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Moeller | 45c | 1,181$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.45 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ymer | 45c | 782.26$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.05 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ymer | 55c | 708$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.68 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Moeller | 45c | 679$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.47 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Ymer | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Moeller | 79c | 372.29$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.64 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Moeller | 46c | 208$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Ymer | 28c | 157.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ymer | 43c | 157.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Ymer | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Moeller | 45c | 111.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Moeller | 71c | 109.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Moeller | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Moeller | 47c | 98.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Ymer | 29c | 96.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Moeller | 20c | 81.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked Ymer | 55c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Moeller | 38c | 51.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Moeller | 39c | 49.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Ymer | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Ymer | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Moeller | 59c | 30.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Ymer | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…a765backed Ymer | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ymer | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.