TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Blue Jays

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jaysof Orioles, Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$461,520
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$467,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,520 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 394 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles38c260,856$99,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,372.5838043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Blue Jays62c134,185$83,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,990.363152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Blue Jays62c77,324$47,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,383.127651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Blue Jays61c43,479$26,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,756.9648254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x991a…2411backed Blue Jays56c33,902$19,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,858.454459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Orioles38c25,000$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,50026949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Blue Jays62c22,196$13,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,434.4835952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Orioles31c18,607$5,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,790.9878445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jays38c12,285$4,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,589.919,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Blue Jays50c11,789$5,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,887.951,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Orioles40c7,825$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.189135.2%32 W · 59 L-12.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jays36c6,996$2,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,452.432,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Blue Jays56c6,022$3,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.551,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Blue Jays62c6,000$3,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,301.4925453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blue Jays61c5,850$3,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.51,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Orioles67c5,318$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,577.5638751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfc…b032backed Orioles38c5,010$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.792958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Orioles61c4,987$3,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,037.872941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blue Jays61c4,845$2,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.952,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaae…8a95backed Blue Jays62c3,408$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.042166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles38c2,073$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.6843949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Orioles64c1,790$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.3921847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Blue Jays33c1,787$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.844,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Orioles65c1,610$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.7776456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles58c1,530$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.621,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa468…816ebacked Blue Jays62c1,516$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.139349.5%46 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Blue Jays58c1,300$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54616947.3%80 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles38c1,234$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.9150843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x63dd…c279backed Orioles71c1,052$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.37458.1%43 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Blue Jays39c1,026$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.0912248.4%59 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ad…9d38backed Orioles39c1,026$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.1417045.3%77 W · 93 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles39c1,025$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.751,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles38c999.95$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9883248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Orioles66c991.62$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.4725551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Blue Jays61c982$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.9820748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…114dbacked Orioles63c935.04$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.172347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Blue Jays5c916.67$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.8339739.5%157 W · 240 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea1…56f2backed Orioles38c897.99$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2412436.3%45 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Orioles57c837$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.0945248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Blue Jays27c822.15$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.596,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Blue Jays61c775$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.2530151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Orioles38c764.47$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.5573149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles38c715.96$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.0644443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Orioles39c699.87$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.953,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Orioles39c692.31$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27057744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Blue Jays62c600$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2281,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Orioles39c572.23$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.171,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Blue Jays60c529$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.61,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Orioles39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Blue Jays22c498.16$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.9315033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blue Jays35c492.99$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.7612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5da…d89ebacked Blue Jays62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.874753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed1f…afd7backed Blue Jays62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.873562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Orioles73c445.21$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Blue Jays14c429$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.9440629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Blue Jays50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2003644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Blue Jays61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15624253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8868…ec0dbacked Orioles39c358.97$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x467e…c62dbacked Blue Jays61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.879357%53 W · 40 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Blue Jays62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.589354.8%51 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Blue Jays62c321$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9851953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x843b…2673backed Orioles65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Blue Jays33c276.85$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.453531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Orioles62c267.5$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.851,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Orioles39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Orioles39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Blue Jays62c253.23$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2399951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Blue Jays61c251$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8927751.3%142 W · 135 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Orioles40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012152.1%63 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5438…0e67backed Orioles39c230.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Blue Jays62c221.66$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2331254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a2…9bbabacked Orioles70c210.7$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0913740.1%55 W · 82 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Blue Jays24c200$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15345732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245f…b6d7backed Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785444.4%24 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc805…e5dbbacked Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcff…0e58backed Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785048%24 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7623…565dbacked Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee0f…f1dcbacked Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44d3…6f65backed Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1243…18cfbacked Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0957…502ebacked Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdcd…8364backed Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41dd…05fabacked Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4d…cd16backed Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785149%25 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4463…7565backed Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785448.1%26 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ade…3223backed Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9788…ad77backed Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3070…218cbacked Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18fa…4a5ebacked Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec8b…716ebacked Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785040%20 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x247e…3a07backed Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8e2…5daebacked Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a5b…02fabacked Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785644.6%25 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb006…289fbacked Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785048%24 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8cd…5c0bbacked Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d07…3068backed Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0add…142bbacked Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d6…b3a6backed Blue Jays61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7f…7b28backed Orioles39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.