Lol · resolved market
LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb143602a6bdc9bf8987e74d2f3c2c7bef9971cb5388cf6bbc9dd26e5af5c1ae7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Winthrop Universityof Conviction, Winthrop University
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Conviction | 1c | 1,434$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 456 | 18.9%86 W · 370 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed Winthrop University | 62c | 555.32$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 321 | 60.7%195 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Conviction | 56c | 445.28$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.31 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Winthrop University | 32c | 300.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 563 | 41%231 W · 332 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…59e9backed Winthrop University | 32c | 285.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.32 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Winthrop University | 54c | 255.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Conviction | 78c | 232.26$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 631 | 61.2%386 W · 245 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Winthrop University | 31c | 217.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 1,114 | 35%390 W · 724 L | +14.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Winthrop University | 48c | 204.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.05 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Conviction | 46c | 193.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 282 | 40.4%114 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Conviction | 61c | 181.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 337 | 37.7%127 W · 210 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Conviction | 69c | 177.42$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.42 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Winthrop University | 43c | 137.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Conviction | 72c | 96.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Winthrop University | 49c | 91.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 621 | 58.8%365 W · 256 L | +32.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Conviction | 68c | 85.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…c4b2backed Winthrop University | 76c | 73.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Conviction | 31c | 67.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Winthrop University | 38c | 53.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 563 | 17.2%97 W · 466 L | -16.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…ee91backed Conviction | 70c | 50.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Conviction | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 336 | 42.3%142 W · 194 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…5ea8backed Winthrop University | 35c | 48.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Conviction | 44c | 30.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6e…b14abacked Conviction | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonWinthrop University won
- LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University - Game 2 WinnerWinthrop University won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.