Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb154bc1e87e5481fbbd1e46697345f002ac2b3ea49cc95f63ebdd4bb0f1fc075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 1,531$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.65 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,513$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.22 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 57c | 999.97$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 57c | 888$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.84 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 57c | 875$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.25 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 58c | 599.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 438.16$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35c…b645backed Under | 45c | 376.87$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 58c | 347.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 43c | 301$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 43c | 202.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 57c | 184.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 89.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 27c | 66.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 50.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ec…27c4backed Under | 29c | 49.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 43c | 42.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 29c | 35.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ec…371bbacked Over | 57c | 32.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 44c | 30.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 65c | 27.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed Under | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…05d6backed Under | 44c | 26.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0b…bc43backed Under | 44c | 26.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…78bdbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…d7e9backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hertha BSC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.