Tennis · resolved market
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb17f7873543a7f66ea110c9c05a54baf3c120faf70cd93caef5b697b35a22134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Niels Mcdonaldof Niels Mcdonald, Sandro Kopp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Niels Mcdonald | 57c | 2,087$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.54 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Sandro Kopp | 24c | 1,178$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.8 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…ecd7backed Sandro Kopp | 70c | 857.14$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Niels Mcdonald | 47c | 528.72$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.72 | 351 | 64.1%225 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Sandro Kopp | 34c | 515.94$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Niels Mcdonald | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Niels Mcdonald | 52c | 384.09$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.08 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sandro Kopp | 42c | 344.46$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Sandro Kopp | 11c | 322.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sandro Kopp | 6c | 307.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2d0backed Sandro Kopp | 54c | 244.29$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 433 | 58.4%253 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd838…96ccbacked Sandro Kopp | 62c | 222.81$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…14d1backed Niels Mcdonald | 49c | 204.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 249 | 36.5%91 W · 158 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sandro Kopp | 50c | 203.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sandro Kopp | 26c | 178.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sandro Kopp | 52c | 145.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sandro Kopp | 18c | 141.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Sandro Kopp | 63c | 125.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Niels Mcdonald | 42c | 110.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Sandro Kopp | 55c | 103.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Niels Mcdonald | 44c | 98.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Sandro Kopp | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Niels Mcdonald | 44c | 81.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…3a00backed Niels Mcdonald | 27c | 75.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Niels Mcdonald | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 159 | 66%105 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Sandro Kopp | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 275 | 30.2%83 W · 192 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Sandro Kopp | 42c | 70.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Niels Mcdonald | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Niels Mcdonald | 65c | 56.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Niels Mcdonald | 78c | 51.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Niels Mcdonald | 43c | 50.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Sandro Kopp | 50c | 44.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Sandro Kopp | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 283 | 43.8%124 W · 159 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5820…b6f6backed Sandro Kopp | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Niels Mcdonald | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Sandro Kopp | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Niels Mcdonald | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.