NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb18544bec510305869968281956288bd52f9f532c392d3f51a1e92970094d04e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Kings, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kings | 50c | 1,531$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.03 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 1,521$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.03 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 192.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 39c | 159.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kings | 29c | 149.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Kings | 41c | 136.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 81.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Kings | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Kings | 40c | 67.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kings | 39c | 65.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 51.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kings | 53c | 51.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 48.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Kings | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Kings | 42c | 46.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Maple Leafs | 46c | 44.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 39.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Maple Leafs | 43c | 34.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 33.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 29.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Kings | 63c | 29.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Maple Leafs | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. KingsKings won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kings: O/U 7.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Kings: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.