MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb18f9f9de83237da962ab06eb971b9202854fea48a7cb6a4a3feab9de9c2a168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b88…9856backed No | 51c | 6,431$3,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,251.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 49c | 4,668$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380.55 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 51c | 1,111$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.39 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 49c | 543.35$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 51c | 385.47$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 51c | 239.71$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8b…98fcbacked No | 52c | 193.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…aff7backed Yes | 53c | 107.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 49c | 79.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…aecdbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 50c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Yes | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Yes | 52c | 29.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 48c | 29.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationalsthis page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 16.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.