MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e10a730fcbb540f577235f7d481a438c058513378d6e8574e852abe904e07ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 47c | 2,676$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.51 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 1,757$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 1,420$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.16 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 35c | 1,252$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.76 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 43c | 1,238$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.34 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 57c | 1,164$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.52 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 895.88$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.11 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 707.55$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.55 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 66c | 700$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 448.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…ea2cbacked Under | 45c | 210.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 194.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d790backed Under | 44c | 181$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 322 | 66.5%214 W · 108 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 72c | 139.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 55c | 131.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 47c | 100.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 710 | 44.5%316 W · 394 L | -23.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 56c | 82.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 29c | 79.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 69c | 77.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 52c | 44.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 26c | 42.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 40.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 53c | 40.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 28c | 39.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 56c | 37.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 42c | 36.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 31.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 74c | 31.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 57c | 29.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 74c | 26.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 74c | 22.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 15.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 16.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.